Why is the price of heating oil rising faster than forecourt fuel?

Tuesday, 31 March 2026 at 12:30

In recent weeks, we've been asked often why the price of heating oil rises and falls at a different rate to the price of fuel in our forecourts.

The reason is that there is a difference between the two fuels and what market they come from – and, because of this, there is vast difference in the effect on the price.

The short answer is that the price of heating oil (kerosene) is driven by the global aviation fuel markets (jet fuel), rather than the crude oil price that leads forecourt prices.

 

In simple terms:

Heating oil = kerosene, which is the same refinery cut as jet fuel.

Jet fuel markets are:

  • far smaller (supply is tight)
  • much more export‑dependent
  • more affected by the Hormuz chokepoint
  • less flexible in refining
  • more sensitive to conflict‑driven risks

 

Forecourt fuel and diesel:

  • have larger, more resilient global markets
  • are produced in much higher volumes
  • have more flexible refining pathways
  • are shipped through more diversified routes

 

As a result, kerosene prices move with jet fuel, not with crude oil, and therefore spike more sharply when aviation-specific supply chains are disrupted.

Here is a graph from February into March which explains how the current increase looks:

 

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